THREAT ASSESSMENT: Strategic Rivalry and Interdependence in Europe-China Relations Under Xi Jinping
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Bottom Line Up Front: Europe faces a growing strategic challenge in balancing de-risking from China while maintaining necessary cooperation on global security and economic stability, risking either over-securitization or under-preparedness in a contested geopolitical landscape.
Threat Identification: The primary threat is the dual nature of China as both a systemic rival in technological, military, and ideological domains and an indispensable partner in climate change mitigation, nuclear arms control, and global supply chains. This duality complicates policy coherence and increases the risk of strategic miscalculation or reactive policymaking.
Probability Assessment: The securitization of China-Europe relations is already underway and highly likely to intensify through 2026–2030, especially as both sides advance industrial policies (e.g., EU Green Deal, China's Made in China 2025) and navigate Taiwan-related tensions. The likelihood of escalating friction in critical sectors (semiconductors, AI, rare earths) is high, while full decoupling remains improbable due to mutual dependencies [Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2026; CRASSH, 2026].
Impact Analysis: Unmanaged rivalry could lead to fragmented technological standards, increased military posturing in the Indo-Pacific, and weakened multilateral institutions. Conversely, failure to de-risk in critical sectors could leave European infrastructure and defense systems vulnerable to coercion or disruption. The economic impact of partial decoupling could exceed €100 billion in affected trade and investment flows by 2030.
Recommended Actions: 1) Establish sector-specific engagement frameworks—cooperate on arms control and climate, compete fairly in tech and trade; 2) Strengthen EU-wide critical supply chain resilience through joint stockpiling and diversification; 3) Launch a structured dialogue with China on nuclear transparency and crisis communication, modeled on Cold War US-Soviet channels; 4) Enhance intelligence-sharing among EU and UK security agencies on Chinese strategic influence operations.
Confidence Matrix:
- Threat Identification: High confidence (based on consistent policy documents and academic analysis)
- Probability Assessment: Moderate to high confidence (informed by current trends and expert consensus)
- Impact Analysis: Moderate confidence (due to uncertainty in escalation dynamics)
- Recommended Actions: High confidence in feasibility, moderate in political will
Published June 5, 2026