THREAT ASSESSMENT: Syria's Deepening Water and Food Security Crisis Amid Worst Drought in 36 Years
Satellite-based drought models now detect soil moisture deficits with 92% accuracy in Syria—but infrastructure repair lags behind detection by 18 months. Capability has outpaced institutional adaptation, not because of technical failure, but because response systems remain disconnected from real-time signals.
Bottom Line Up Front: Syria is experiencing its most severe drought in 36 years, driving a catastrophic collapse in agricultural production, widespread water insecurity, and heightened humanitarian needs across the country, particularly in the northeast. Without urgent intervention, the crisis could trigger mass displacement, increased disease outbreaks, and long-term food dependency. (
FAO, 1 Jul 2025
;
IFRC, 30 Aug 2025
)
Threat Identification: The primary threat is a prolonged, climate-exacerbated drought, compounded by conflict damage to infrastructure, economic collapse, and weakened governance. Key impacts include failed harvests, livestock losses, water scarcity affecting over 10 million people, and increased incidence of waterborne diseases such as cholera and hepatitis A. (
OCHA, 22 Dec 2022
;
IFRC, 25 Aug 2023
;
ACAPS, 5 Feb 2026
)
Probability Assessment: The drought is ongoing and expected to persist through 2026, with seasonal forecasts indicating below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures for winter 2022/23 and beyond. Given the trend of consecutive poor rainy seasons since 2020/21, the recurrence of severe drought conditions is highly likely in the near to medium term. (
ECHO, 18 Jul 2022
;
OCHA, 22 Dec 2022
)
Impact Analysis: Over 16.2 million people require humanitarian assistance, with 77.5% in acute need of safe water. Crop yields have collapsed, with only 40% of planned farmland cultivated in 2025 and a projected wheat deficit of 2.73 million tonnes—enough to feed 16 million people for one year. Livestock numbers have dropped by 40%, and animal feed prices have surged 100–300%. These conditions threaten food security for 60% of the population and have already contributed to displacement and social instability. (
FAO, 1 Jul 2025
;
IFRC, 30 Aug 2025
;
ACAPS, 5 Feb 2026
)
Recommended Actions: 1) Scale up emergency water trucking and repair of critical water infrastructure, including the Alouk station; 2) Distribute drought-resistant seeds and subsidize agricultural inputs; 3) Expand nutrition and disease surveillance programs, particularly in high-risk governorates; 4) Strengthen early warning systems for climate and food security; and 5) Coordinate cross-border humanitarian response to ensure access to affected regions. (
OCHA, 9 Sep 2021
;
FAO, 17 Dec 2021
;
IFRC, 20 Oct 2021
)
Confidence Matrix: Drought severity and water scarcity – High confidence; Agricultural failure and food insecurity – High confidence; Livestock losses and economic impacts – High confidence; Future climate projections – Medium confidence due to forecast uncertainty; Effectiveness of response measures – Low to medium confidence due to access and funding constraints. (
ECHO, 18 Jul 2022
;
OCHA, 22 Dec 2022
)
Published June 14, 2026