THE LONG VIEW

Bottom Line Up Front: The United States is losing strategic leverage over China on the Taiwan issue due to President Trump’s inconsistent positioning, eroded alliances, and poor bargaining posture—creating a window for Beijing to achieve incremental but significant gains by 2029. Threat Identification: China is exploiting U.S. political fragmentation and Trump’s desire for a 'big deal' to advance its position on Taiwan, seeking to extract tacit U.S. concessions on arms sales and opposition to independence—directly undermining long-standing U.S. policy frameworks like the Six Assurances of 1982[1]. Beijing aims for political and diplomatic victories rather than immediate military action, leveraging rare-earth export controls and strategic patience[2]. Probability Assessment: High probability (70–80%) of incremental Chinese gains on Taiwan by 2028–2029. These include reduced U.S. arms sales transparency, ambiguous U.S. statements on defense commitments, or informal consultation with Beijing on Taiwan-related matters—all achievable within Trump’s remaining term. Full-scale invasion remains low probability (<20%) in this timeframe, but political coercion is escalating[3]. Impact Analysis: Erosion of U.S. credibility in Asia, weakening deterrence against Chinese coercion. Taiwan’s security posture would be degraded, particularly if arms sales are curtailed or politicized. Regional allies like Japan may be forced to accelerate military autonomy, risking strategic fragmentation. A precedent would be set for transactional U.S. foreign policy undermining decades of norm-based engagement[4]. Recommended Actions: 1) Congress should reaffirm the Taiwan Relations Act and Six Assurances via resolution to check executive overreach. 2) U.S. allies (Japan, Australia, Philippines) should coordinate public statements reaffirming support for a free and open Indo-Pacific. 3) The State Department should publish a declassified assessment of U.S.-China-Taiwan relations to counter ambiguity. 4) Expand non-lethal defense cooperation with Taiwan to maintain deterrence under the radar. Confidence Matrix: - U.S. Leverage Erosion: High confidence (based on public statements, defense forum remarks, and policy deviations)[5] - Chinese Strategy on Taiwan: High confidence (consistent with historical patterns and current economic levers)[6] - Likelihood of Arms Sale Changes: Medium-High confidence (contingent on upcoming summit outcomes) - Military Invasion Risk: Medium confidence (low in 2026–2029, but monitor PLA readiness indicators) [1] Kyodo News, 'OPINION: U.S. leverage wanes as China aims for gains over Taiwan', 27 Jun 2026 [2] Ibid. [3] Ibid. [4] Ryo Sahashi, expert commentary, 27 Jun 2026 [5] Pete Hegseth remarks, Shangri-La Dialogue, 30 May 2026 [6] Ibid.