THE LONG VIEW

China is intensifying its gray-zone warfare in the South China Sea through coordinated, non-lethal but highly provocative actions, including water cannon attacks and dangerous close maneuvers against Philippine government vessels, to assert control over disputed features like Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal. Threat identification: The primary threat is China’s sustained campaign of maritime coercion using its coast guard and maritime militia to harass, intimidate, and disrupt Philippine operations in contested waters, particularly around Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal—areas within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under UNCLOS. These actions violate the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling that invalidated China’s expansive claims [1]. Probability assessment: Such incidents are highly likely to continue and possibly escalate throughout 2026–2027, especially as bilateral tensions persist and Code of Conduct negotiations progress; confrontations occur multiple times per month, with increasing frequency during sensitive political or diplomatic moments. Impact analysis: The consequences include erosion of rule-based maritime order, risk of accidental armed conflict, degradation of Philippine operational access to vital fishing grounds and reefs, and weakening of U.S.-backed alliances in Southeast Asia. Repeated disruption of satellite communications aboard Philippine ships suggests potential electronic warfare components [2]. Recommended actions: The Philippines should enhance real-time sensor coverage and evidence-gathering (e.g., drones, AIS tracking), expand joint patrols with allied nations (U.S., Japan, Australia), activate mutual defense provisions under existing treaties, and formally petition international bodies for adjudication of each violation. Additionally, public dissemination of incident footage can counter Chinese disinformation. Confidence matrix: Threat identification – High confidence (based on consistent reporting and video evidence); Probability assessment – High confidence (pattern established across multiple incidents); Impact analysis – High confidence (aligned with regional security trends); Recommended actions – Moderate to high confidence (dependent on alliance coordination and political will) [3]. Citations: [1] Permanent Court of Arbitration, Award in Philippines v. China, 12 July 2016. [2] Philippine Coast Guard statement, 24 Jul 2026, cited in AFP/France 24. [3] France 24, 'Philippines says ship hit by Chinese water cannon at disputed reef,' 24 Jul 2026.