THREAT ASSESSMENT: Vulnerability of EU Hydrogen Infrastructure to Supply Disruptions
If EU hydrogen import infrastructure is deployed without integrated risk modeling, supply chains may become structurally vulnerable to disruption, increasing economic exposure and reducing flexibility in trade corridors. [Radke et al.]
Bottom Line Up Front: Without proactive resilience planning, EU hydrogen import infrastructure faces significant disruption risks that could result in substantial economic welfare losses—up to 12% (€24 billion) compared to risk-aware strategies [Radke et al.].
Threat Identification: The primary threat is the emergence of structurally vulnerable hydrogen supply chains due to underinvestment in resilience, mirroring past fossil fuel dependencies. This stems from current planning models that neglect supply disruption risks.
Probability Assessment: High likelihood within the next decade (2026–2035), as EU hydrogen import infrastructure is currently in development and critical investment decisions are being made. Delayed integration of risk considerations increases exposure.
Impact Analysis: A failure to incorporate resilience measures could lock in inefficient and fragile infrastructure, leading to €24 billion in welfare losses and reduced energy security. The impact spans economic efficiency, geopolitical dependencies, and long-term decarbonization goals.
Recommended Actions: 1) Integrate stochastic risk modeling into national and EU-level hydrogen infrastructure planning; 2) Prioritize diversification of import corridors and investment in redundant transport capacity; 3) Support strategic over-investment in shipping terminals and intra-European pipelines despite higher upfront costs.
Confidence Matrix: Threat Identification – High confidence; Probability Assessment – High confidence; Impact Analysis – High confidence; Recommended Actions – Medium-High confidence (dependent on political and regulatory coordination). [Radke et al.]
Published June 9, 2026