THE LONG VIEW

Bottom Line Up Front: China is actively intensifying its economic espionage efforts with a strategic focus on stealing U.S. artificial intelligence technology, posing a critical threat to national security and technological leadership. Threat Identification: Chinese state-backed and aligned entities are leveraging cyber intrusions, academic partnerships, human intelligence operations, and strategic investments to acquire sensitive AI research and commercial technologies from the United States and other Western nations [South China Morning Post, 2026-06-25]. Probability Assessment: The campaign is already underway and accelerating, with no indication of de-escalation. Given China’s established infrastructure for technology acquisition and military-civil fusion policies, AI-focused espionage is highly likely to persist and expand over the next 5–10 years. Impact Analysis: Success in these efforts directly strengthens China’s military modernization and economic competitiveness, particularly in dual-use AI applications. Long-term consequences include erosion of U.S. technological advantage, compromised defense systems, and loss of global innovation leadership [Shedd, 2026]. Overly broad countermeasures also risk damaging academic freedom and alienating Chinese-American communities, weakening the very openness that fuels U.S. innovation [Yang, 2026]. Recommended Actions: Implement targeted safeguards for high-risk AI research institutions; strengthen supply chain and cybersecurity protocols in AI development; expand counterintelligence outreach with clear guidelines to avoid racial profiling; and foster international cooperation on technology protection standards. Confidence Matrix: Threat Identification – High confidence; Probability Assessment – High confidence; Impact Analysis – High confidence; Recommended Actions – Moderate to high confidence based on historical precedent and expert testimony.